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Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Do the elections of 2010 mean anything?

Yesterday's election in the U.S. may have changed who the Speaker of the House is, but the smart money hardly noticed as evidenced by the stock markets today.  The Dow was up just 0.24%

In the words of Benjamin Graham, "in the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine."

What this says to me is that while the topsy turvy world that is the American electorate voted to change their Congressperson as a way to vent, Wall Street doesn't believe that things will actually get any better anytime soon.  As there were more Democrats in Congress, it just makes sense that more of them were made to pay for the recession we are going through.  In American politics there has always been a very strong "throw the bums out" strain when things in the economy are going poorly.  So it was an outcome that was not a surprise as it has happened with regularity during midterm elections in the past.  In recent memory alone:
  • Newt Gingrich (R) became Speaker during President Clinton's (D) tenure
  • Nancy Pelosi (D) became Speaker during President Bush's (R) tenure
And so John Boehner will be the new Speaker of the House.  But one person cannot change the tough times we are in.  So what will John Boehner do?  Reading his past speeches doesn't instill much confidence he will do anything to move the country forward.  He was after all the architect of the "hell no" strategy intended to thwart any legislation proposed by the President.   He has proposed no new ideas, a cynical approach to leadership.  An obstructionist is the last thing we need in America right now.

So do the elections of 2010 meaning anything?  If it means anything at all it's that the recession caused by the mortgage bubble that tanked the economy in 2008 is still with us and has caused a lot of pain for American voters who want to "throw the bums out".   And they'll do it again in 2 years if things don't improve.

I still see the glass half full and believe that there is hope that things will improve but it won't be easy. The formula for turning things around involves just 2 actors: the private sector and the public sector, or the government.  Just today the Fed Reserve, the nation's central banker, announced it is buying $600 billion in debt as a way to bring down long term interest rates.  Now we need the private sector to hire Americans and not send jobs overseas.  American companies are sitting on a record amount of cash (Apple alone added $17 billion to its balance sheet last year) and without more investment the only other option is another stimulus bill from Congress which Mr. Boehner has already dismissed. At times like these we need leadership.  Will they answer the call?

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